Another risk is that recent changes in the field are hard to detect and the, search that combines different views needs to pay extra attention to the definition. The exploratory part of this thesis resulted in, the definition of intelligence as “bureaucratically produced as well as socially con-, structed and created in a distinct cultural context” (Article I). Part of British Online Archives's wide-ranging World Wars series, the resources contained within this collection shed light on the activities and attitudes of British military intelligence agencies during the Second World War and Cold War.. Although this is obvious, it not always simple to see what constitutes harm in, this context; issues of harm and security go hand-in-hand. cial and cultural aspects. con-ducted by the intelligence community (Honig 2008). All these criteria are deemed equally, important to causal explanations. Some users may encounter difficulties opening these files from the server. Most research questions regarding intelligence, analysis have a dimension of epistemology. sis, and in particular, how available data was interpreted and assessed. originate. is hard to argue that it is also the case in military intelligence. This is true on one level; there are few theories or frameworks explicitly developed for intelligence as a field. S u m m a r y . ‘The Psychology of Worldviews’. Several different, forms of intelligence can be seen, some which overlap business intelligence, strategic, intelligence, national/national security intelligence, law enforcement/police intelli-, gence, military intelligence, and defense intelligence. However, in the social, sciences we are usually directed to natural experiments where we cannot control the, variables or acquire an adequate sample that is not too small. Swedish, military), but also its characteristics. 2009. Opinion. In this case, the affecting variable is the work-, The main conclusion of this article is that military intelligence is bureaucratically. was part of the Allied forces Arctic convoys during World War II, which supplied the Soviet Union with much needed goods in its battles, with Hitler’s Germany. Taylor & Francis. plaining and describing the institutional influence on intelligence assessments. for a full printed version of this dissertation! This means that drawing any conclusions, based on the institution’s causal effect in general cannot be made. Theory and Intelligence Reconsidered, ———. Place of publication not identified: Routledge. Goffman’s defi-, nition of institution differs, in part, from Ostrom’s, but in this case the boundaries. The results, obtained from the case study with a high ecological validity, suggest that the prototype tool provided valuable insights by bringing forth information from a more diverse set of sources, specifically from private citizens that would not have been easily discovered otherwise. structions influence as well as guide our decisions within an institution (2000). Among the interviewees, there was some discrep-, ancies regarding the relevancy of the available handbooks. Many precise and valuable measurements can be made of the varying aspects of the pattern. 31 (2): 266–79. Within the holon of the action situation, assumptions are needed regarding, what can be seen as the three essential components: information, preference and, choice mechanisms. In other words, embodied interactions contribute directly to the building of mental models of the infant’s physiological states, given the need to maintain such states within a given dynamic range despite internal or external perturbations. edited by Arthur Lupia, Mathew McCubbins, and Samuel Popkin, 1 edition. In the mind of, tive in the scholarly debate regarding the definition of intelligence. What does all this tell us? Examples of the interview questions included: In your opinion, what are the most essential steps in a threat analysis? By understand-, ing the mechanisms and connecting the assessment with the independent exogenous, variables, a better understanding of the process can be achieved and thereby the. Because intelligence is so important to the commander, operational lawyers must understand the basics of intelligence law. Sabatier, Paul A. It can also be concluded that epistemology is something, the intelligence community needs to consider since it is an essential part of their. It is also under the premise that, they study the same topic or area over a longer period of time. Chapter 5 includes the main findings from each of, the findings from the articles are discussed as a whole, with a focus on the. 0000000680 00000 n In these cases, the responsibility to protect the respondents weighed heavier than, the need for transparency. The term “intelligence process” includes all actions taken in order to achieve the, result: intelligence as a product or another outcome depending on how you define. One of the strengths of, case studies in general is the conceptual validity, which is a part of the internal valid-. Thereafter, each source was selected, so that it could answer the specific question or to verify the existence of a specific, indicator or lack of it. One of the reasons, for the development of Ostrom’s framework was to provide a common language. thesis (see Article I and the supporting case study in chapter 4). By adding the complementary framework to under-, stand the institutional influence on assessments and base this on the IAD frame-, work it creates the possibility to travel up, It can also be seen as a contribution to the public administration as intelligence anal-, ysis can be classified as an extreme type of highly bureaucratic and sectionalized. Therefore, the overarching research question for this thesis is: How do military intelligence institutions influence intelligence analysis? For example, the effect of deception and denial, which is an, integrated part of intelligence analysis, can be influenced through different tech-, niques or collecting strategies. On the. ‘Intelligence and the Machinery of Government: Conceptualizing the. Beliefs that the institution’s members can express and articulate can be seen, as theories-in-use and can have a direct influence on the mental model. , accessed 20 Sep-, Vandepeer, Charles. The rules-in-use and belief systems were de-. Even if someone does not agree with the, Berger and Luckmann view that it controls the actors’ actions, it can be conclude. This concept exists in the minds of the participants but does not always. ———. , edited by Paul A Sabatier. the dual influence between the mental model and the perception of the situation. Article I demonstrated that military intelligence is, bureaucratically produced as well as socially constructed and created in a distinct, cultural context; hence, providing a better understanding of the system in which an, assessment is constructed is vital. H�|Wɲ��ݿ��%�"a�Cv\�R�Xe���El��h ���K~ �}�{�o7/?l6�H�f��dQS��㧴j��U\FM*6����B����¶/?��S"�%��8.Ħ}�������q��(�ͿQA��,=U*�&����x1���X'Q�ޣ��}��;=��*&��ً��G�u���V��`���?^�e��V���Nl�x��.TQQ�瓪a��ߡ=Z����VH�QGe�7֤"#��V|�˯���C��(F#�4��uGe~�[��y�ޙ�)������L?&,�"�VB�Gٷ����G}���B��$��E r�$+Y� �$4�do���酝��^��b�z�FBl ��˿w�q:R�s�Q`�@b`�� �Ӳ���[q9���+��J00a��M\�Dǫ�-6�}A@���i5_ӊ�Ioً�_��?�0(> Π+��ʊ��`�Y�EX?�2(�o]�F���l�+� I was deployed as an intelligence officer at G2 during pars of 2010 and 2011. The main conclusion is that there are similarities among the three nations indicating, that some fundamental beliefs are shared by their institutions. The majority of the documents are weekly, monthly, and quarterly intelligence summaries produced by the Army, Royal Navy, and Royal Air Force. The framework is placed within the distinct context of, military intelligence in order to achieve a holistic, offensive and target-centric view, of future CCI. A Shared Epistemological View Within Military, International Journal of Intelligence and, Bang, Martin and Liwång Hans. Change 2, 10/01/2020 2 and “Tactical Intelligence and Related Activities (TIARA).” This term and its definition are In Chapter 3, the methodology for this thesis is presented and. Detta görs genom att studera den svenska mili-, tärunderrättelseinstitutionen ur flera perspektiv. Although it can be argued that it is a defining characteristic in national intelligence, it. This project aims to shed some light on both challenges and possibilities specifically in relation to military organizations and military decision-making. In his article “The Develop-, ment of Intelligence Studies,” Johnson sees one specific area as under-utilized, but, with potential; that is the method of interviewing intelligence officers upon their, return from deployment (Johnson 2014, 13). The IAD belongs to the family of frameworks that are called institu-, tional rational choice. It creates the boundaries in which the mental models can be formed. Much of this attention has been geared toward research on intelli-, However, even though research on intelligence is growing, academic development, on the subject has been slow. A figure of how the different articles of this thesis are connected and contribute to understanding the relationship between intelligence institutions and assessments. This thesis intends to contribute to bridging these research gaps. he different parts of this thesis contribute in putting together the pieces of, the puzzle creating a picture over the causal relation between intelligence, institutions and assessments. "If you have an intressted in the subject I recomend the artikel Institutional influence on assessments: the institutional analysis and development framework applied to military intelligence where the theory is more developed." With the help of the, information gathered, the initial question is answered. 1986. The Institutional Analysis and Development Framework (IAD) framework has a, multidisciplinary ambition and combines political theory, economics, sociology and, psychology. H��U]O�H}ϯ�O+{�/��� ZTD�V+�n2$����¿����@���������s�oN��a� ��ݍ8C&��ǟ87`���G�㕆٪{�`5�O9,V#��}�f��q�*5�M^^����&�Ywr�b#0v�"��8w�TЄ�*0�`p��n�>�_e��p�Fyn42eDKށ�@�в�cಞ۲��.-|�)�eQm�t33LS�h�>��M>���g�\��,���f��zfW�5�=BI��-9�N�]Ex��� r8` P ����k�V��� rK��N����.m��C%�����>�M{&(RzT-�wp�`��-�*/a:+4�م�aS The problem is that it is not possible to isolate or measure any effect of a bias, within the institution. 1999. Although it has not been the primary aim of, this thesis, a theoretical contribution in field of public administration and new insti-, tutionalism can also be seen. In, other words, another scholar studying the same material may have been able to. resembling the DIKW hierarchy: the Data Information Intelligence (DII) hierarchy. Whether or not this is possible depends on both, representative it is for that specific class (George and Bennett 2005, 110). In this phase, the data and infor-, mation needed according to the planning phase are gathered/collected by those, means seen as appropriate: signal intelligence, human intelligence, IMINT, open, The analysis or the process phase, discussed at length below, is often divided into, two steps: structuring and analysis. tional Security 28 (5): 678–93. The research design of this thesis has had a sequential structure and can be seen as a, two-step process. The real contribution of this thesis is in its ability to, show the link between an institution and an assessment, by drawing upon rules-in-, use and belief systems and their effect on the mental model and consequently the, perception of the situation connected to a cognitive bias and thereby its effect on a, It can be stated that the institution in which military intelligence is produced is a, vital factor for understanding how to influence and change assessments. It does not matter if the discus-, sion is referred to as science vs. art (Johnston 2005, 20) or craft vs. science (Marrin. Influences on threat assessment in a military context, The Royal Navy and the Arctic Convoys: A Naval Staff History, Intelligence failures: Forecasting and the lessons of epistemology, Sharpening strategic intelligence: Why the CIA gets it wrong, and what needs to be done to get it right, Improving intelligence analysis: Bridging the gap between scholarship and practice, Mental models of AI-based systems: User predictions and explanations of image classification results, The Heuristic-Analytic Theory of Reasoning: Extension and Evaluation, On designing comprehensible interactive hypermedia manuals, The meaning of crystallinity when judged by x‐rays, Mentalizing homeostasis: The social origins of interoceptive inference. This can be achieved in several different ways. The framework illustrates how an institution influ-, ences assessments via the mental model of the analyst(s) and the variables influenc-, ing the mental model. A definition of a concept needs to have a purpose and a clear understanding of how, unclear why the definition of intelligence is needed. In the case of Afghanistan, approximately 50% of the, the British write some of the best doctrines in the world, but fortunately their offic-. This article connects the, effect with the rules-in-use within a military intelligence institution, particularly the, rules-in-use that dictate that an analyst takes his or her starting point from recently, conducted assessments of the specific area or threat. However, theories and frameworks aimed to understand the phenomenon are still sparse. Empirical exper-, iments on the rule-in-use (similar to the experiment presented in Article V) that, connect to structured techniques could help address this issue and provide some, In the area of threat assessment research and experiments linked to analysts’ aver-, sion, lowering a given threat level is highly interesting. 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